1 JAPAN
2 GERMANY
3 ITALY
4 NETHERLANDS
5 AUSTRIA
6 SWITZERLAND
7 BELGIUM
8 SWEDEN
9 FRANCE
10 SPAIN
The world GDP will explode from $73 trillion to $370 trillion in 2050, according to Citi's Willem Buiter. This corresponds to an average real growth rate of 4.2% annually.
"But growth will be far from uniform," says Buiter.
Europe dominates Buiter's list of the slowest growing countries. Lagging behind a developing Asia, Japan is the only non-European nation among the bottom ten.
America will grow relatively well for a developed economy, at 2.5% annually.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/slowest-growing-countries-2011-2##ixzz1byqsgRSN
Thursday, October 27, 2011
The 10 Fastest Growing Economies Of The Next 40 Years
The 10 Fastest Growing Economies Of The Next 40 Years
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/
#1 Nigeria
YoY growth rate: 8.5%
GDP in 2050: $9.5 trillion (#6 in the world)
In four decades, Nigeria's working age population should increase by 123%, and it has started to exploit its large natural resource endowments more sustainably. Its private sector has spawned companies that are expanding to other African regions, but improvements are need in healthcare to raise the low life expectancy.
Projections provided by Citi. GDP in 2050 was given by Citi or estimated using growth rate.
#2 India
YoY growth rate: 8.0%
GDP in 2050: $86 trillion (#1 in the world)
India will be the largest economy in the world by 2050, but it has to improve its overall infrastructure and extend education to lower castes as well as females in rural areas.
Projections provided by Citi. GDP in 2050 (PPP) was given by Citi or estimated using growth rate.
#3 Iraq
YoY growth rate: 7.7%
GDP in 2050: $2.2 trillion
Iraq's post-war reconstruction and recovery means it will have an estimated 11.7% annual growth during the first five years. Over the next four decades, its working age population should go up by 143.4% and it has abundant oil and gas resources to draw on to finance infrastructure investment.
#4 Bangladesh
YoY growth rate: 7.5%
GDP in 2050: $5.0 trillion
Bangladesh is starting out at the bottom with a GDP per capita that's just 4% of the US, but with recent political stability and a young population it could get impressive growth rates over the next decades.
#5 Vietnam
YoY growth rate: 7.5%
GDP in 2050: $5.0 trillion
Some of Vietnam's many challenges, which include "erratic at best and poor most of the time" exchange rate and macroeconometric policies, will be easy to overcome.
#6 Philippines
YoY growth rate: 7.3%
GDP in 2050: $5.9 trillion
The Philippines' way too low investment rate at 14.5% of GDP needs to rise, but the country will benefit from a growing population and large community of workers sending remittances back and gaining foreign experience.
#7 Mongolia
YoY growth rate: 6.9%
GDP in 2050: $150 billion
Mongolia's economy, based "overwhelmingly" on resource extraction, is set for 14.2% GDP growth in the next five years. Right now the "quite remarkable" saving and investment rates put Mongolia on the right path for potential growth.
#8 Indonesia
YoY growth rate: 6.8%
GDP in 2050: $14 trillion (#4 in the world)
A 17.9% increase by 2050 in an already-large working age population could set up Indonesia for China-like growth, if capital formation and infrastructure catch up. Natural resource extraction, a major source of growth so far, needs more investment.
#9 Sri Lanka
Image: transaid images via Flickr
YoY growth rate: 6.6%
GDP in 2050: $1.3 trillion
In the next decades, Citi expects improved governance and post-conflict growth in Sri Lanka after the end of the civil war with the Tamil Tigers. The investment rate has to rise to make up for a population that will all but stop growing.
#10 Egypt
YoY growth rate: 6.4%
GDP in 2050: $6.0 trillion (#10 in the world)
A 60.8% rise in Egypt's working age population by 2050 will be a "big plus" if job opportunities keep up. Citi is optimistic about economic reform after the revolution.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/
#1 Nigeria
YoY growth rate: 8.5%
GDP in 2050: $9.5 trillion (#6 in the world)
In four decades, Nigeria's working age population should increase by 123%, and it has started to exploit its large natural resource endowments more sustainably. Its private sector has spawned companies that are expanding to other African regions, but improvements are need in healthcare to raise the low life expectancy.
Projections provided by Citi. GDP in 2050 was given by Citi or estimated using growth rate.
#2 India
YoY growth rate: 8.0%
GDP in 2050: $86 trillion (#1 in the world)
India will be the largest economy in the world by 2050, but it has to improve its overall infrastructure and extend education to lower castes as well as females in rural areas.
Projections provided by Citi. GDP in 2050 (PPP) was given by Citi or estimated using growth rate.
#3 Iraq
YoY growth rate: 7.7%
GDP in 2050: $2.2 trillion
Iraq's post-war reconstruction and recovery means it will have an estimated 11.7% annual growth during the first five years. Over the next four decades, its working age population should go up by 143.4% and it has abundant oil and gas resources to draw on to finance infrastructure investment.
#4 Bangladesh
YoY growth rate: 7.5%
GDP in 2050: $5.0 trillion
Bangladesh is starting out at the bottom with a GDP per capita that's just 4% of the US, but with recent political stability and a young population it could get impressive growth rates over the next decades.
#5 Vietnam
YoY growth rate: 7.5%
GDP in 2050: $5.0 trillion
Some of Vietnam's many challenges, which include "erratic at best and poor most of the time" exchange rate and macroeconometric policies, will be easy to overcome.
#6 Philippines
YoY growth rate: 7.3%
GDP in 2050: $5.9 trillion
The Philippines' way too low investment rate at 14.5% of GDP needs to rise, but the country will benefit from a growing population and large community of workers sending remittances back and gaining foreign experience.
#7 Mongolia
YoY growth rate: 6.9%
GDP in 2050: $150 billion
Mongolia's economy, based "overwhelmingly" on resource extraction, is set for 14.2% GDP growth in the next five years. Right now the "quite remarkable" saving and investment rates put Mongolia on the right path for potential growth.
#8 Indonesia
YoY growth rate: 6.8%
GDP in 2050: $14 trillion (#4 in the world)
A 17.9% increase by 2050 in an already-large working age population could set up Indonesia for China-like growth, if capital formation and infrastructure catch up. Natural resource extraction, a major source of growth so far, needs more investment.
#9 Sri Lanka
Image: transaid images via Flickr
YoY growth rate: 6.6%
GDP in 2050: $1.3 trillion
In the next decades, Citi expects improved governance and post-conflict growth in Sri Lanka after the end of the civil war with the Tamil Tigers. The investment rate has to rise to make up for a population that will all but stop growing.
#10 Egypt
YoY growth rate: 6.4%
GDP in 2050: $6.0 trillion (#10 in the world)
A 60.8% rise in Egypt's working age population by 2050 will be a "big plus" if job opportunities keep up. Citi is optimistic about economic reform after the revolution.
Tuesday, October 04, 2011
Xylene prices, Toluene prices, benzene prices
Singapore (Platts)--4Oct2011/657 am EDT/1057 GMT
China's ongoing National Day holidays, falling crude and the worsening fiscal woes in the US and Europe exerted downward pressure on Asian aromatics prices, which tumbled around 2% Tuesday morning.
Asian paraxylene was pegged at $1,576.50/mt CFR Taiwan/China on Tuesday morning, down $22.50/mt or 1.4%, from Monday's close.
An offer for an any November arrival parcel was posted at $1,590/mt CFR Taiwan/China, down $9/mt from Monday's closing price. But with no buyers to fix a floor price, the offer further retreated to $1,585/mt CFR.
"There's no response to the offer and I can see many sellers in the market now," said a market participant.
With China closed for its National Day holiday this week, downstream purified terephthalic acid makers were not available to pick up spot PX. "Only Chinese end-users can buy the cargoes at low prices now, but all of them are on holiday," said a Singapore-based trader.
PX feedstock isomer-grade mixed xylenes was also south-bound early Tuesday morning with sellers seeking to offload their November cargoes amid a dearth of buyers.
Platts pegged isomer-MX FOB Korea and CFR Taiwan benchmarks at a two-and-a-half-month low of $1,246.50/mt and $1,261.50/mt Tuesday morning, respectively, down by $16/mt from Monday's close.
The last time Platts assessed isomer-MX lower on July 15,2011, at $1233.50/mt FOB Korea and $1,247.50/mt CFR Taiwan.
Early Tuesday, at least two traders were offering November cargoes initially at $1,285/mt CFR Taiwan. The offers were eventually reduced to $1,260/mt CFR Taiwan but no buyers were interested.
"The fundamentals for [isomer-MX] were unstable and the PX market looks weak," said a South Korean trader. The PX-MX spread was at a five-week-low of $311.50/mt Monday. Producers typically need a spread of $230/mt between the xylenes to break even.
Meanwhile, Asian toluene was pegged at $1,029/mt FOB Korea, down $19/mt, or 1.8%, from Monday. This was attributed to bearish factors such as the weak upstream energy complex and a bleak economic outlook in the West.
The Chinese National Day holiday was also blamed for the relative lull in the market, according to industry participants, who added that a clearer view could be ascertained after that. Another market watcher said that traders were unable to liquidate their positions because of the Chinese holiday.
Nonetheless, bids and offers for toluene were placed at $1,035-1,060/mt FOB Korea for any November cargoes Tuesday morning, and $990-1,010/mt FOB Korea for any December cargoes. These bids were lower than off-screen postings Monday, with the best November bid at $1,055/mt FOB Korea, and the December bid-offer range at $1,010-1,015/mt FOB Korea. Deals were heard done at $1,013/mt FOB Korea for December.
Asian benzene prices fell below $1,000/mt FOB Korea mark for the first time in 2011 Tuesday morning, and morning pegs were down $22.5/mt compared with Monday's assessment of $1,009/mt FOB Korea. The last time Platts prices were assessed below $1,000/mt was December 20, 2010.
December bids were reported at $971/mt FOB Korea, Tuesday morning against offers at $979/mt FOB Korea, during a busy morning.
November bids were reported at $985/mt FOB Korea, with November to December time spreads bid at $10/mt versus offers at $20/mt, implying a continued backwardation.
China's ongoing National Day holidays, falling crude and the worsening fiscal woes in the US and Europe exerted downward pressure on Asian aromatics prices, which tumbled around 2% Tuesday morning.
Asian paraxylene was pegged at $1,576.50/mt CFR Taiwan/China on Tuesday morning, down $22.50/mt or 1.4%, from Monday's close.
An offer for an any November arrival parcel was posted at $1,590/mt CFR Taiwan/China, down $9/mt from Monday's closing price. But with no buyers to fix a floor price, the offer further retreated to $1,585/mt CFR.
"There's no response to the offer and I can see many sellers in the market now," said a market participant.
With China closed for its National Day holiday this week, downstream purified terephthalic acid makers were not available to pick up spot PX. "Only Chinese end-users can buy the cargoes at low prices now, but all of them are on holiday," said a Singapore-based trader.
PX feedstock isomer-grade mixed xylenes was also south-bound early Tuesday morning with sellers seeking to offload their November cargoes amid a dearth of buyers.
Platts pegged isomer-MX FOB Korea and CFR Taiwan benchmarks at a two-and-a-half-month low of $1,246.50/mt and $1,261.50/mt Tuesday morning, respectively, down by $16/mt from Monday's close.
The last time Platts assessed isomer-MX lower on July 15,2011, at $1233.50/mt FOB Korea and $1,247.50/mt CFR Taiwan.
Early Tuesday, at least two traders were offering November cargoes initially at $1,285/mt CFR Taiwan. The offers were eventually reduced to $1,260/mt CFR Taiwan but no buyers were interested.
"The fundamentals for [isomer-MX] were unstable and the PX market looks weak," said a South Korean trader. The PX-MX spread was at a five-week-low of $311.50/mt Monday. Producers typically need a spread of $230/mt between the xylenes to break even.
Meanwhile, Asian toluene was pegged at $1,029/mt FOB Korea, down $19/mt, or 1.8%, from Monday. This was attributed to bearish factors such as the weak upstream energy complex and a bleak economic outlook in the West.
The Chinese National Day holiday was also blamed for the relative lull in the market, according to industry participants, who added that a clearer view could be ascertained after that. Another market watcher said that traders were unable to liquidate their positions because of the Chinese holiday.
Nonetheless, bids and offers for toluene were placed at $1,035-1,060/mt FOB Korea for any November cargoes Tuesday morning, and $990-1,010/mt FOB Korea for any December cargoes. These bids were lower than off-screen postings Monday, with the best November bid at $1,055/mt FOB Korea, and the December bid-offer range at $1,010-1,015/mt FOB Korea. Deals were heard done at $1,013/mt FOB Korea for December.
Asian benzene prices fell below $1,000/mt FOB Korea mark for the first time in 2011 Tuesday morning, and morning pegs were down $22.5/mt compared with Monday's assessment of $1,009/mt FOB Korea. The last time Platts prices were assessed below $1,000/mt was December 20, 2010.
December bids were reported at $971/mt FOB Korea, Tuesday morning against offers at $979/mt FOB Korea, during a busy morning.
November bids were reported at $985/mt FOB Korea, with November to December time spreads bid at $10/mt versus offers at $20/mt, implying a continued backwardation.
Monday, October 03, 2011
PET prices
Singapore (Platts)--29Sep2011/157 am EDT/557 GMT
Asian polyethylene terephthalate buyers have slashed purchase volumes despite cooling PET prices in the region after a recent surge, as they expect prices to fall further, producers told Platts this week.
PET prices started trending lower in the past two weeks on lower feedstock costs, with PET on an FOB Northeast Asia basis assessed at $1,670/mt Wednesday, down $45/mt week on week, while FOB SEA prices were assessed at $1,690/mt, down $50/mt over the same period.
Based on the latest feedstock prices, the breakeven price for PET is estimated at $1,613.24/mt, down $110.56/mt from last week. On Wednesday, CFR China monoethylene glycol was assessed at $1,212/mt, down $108/mt week on week, while CFR China purified terephthalic acid was assessed at $1,238/mt, down $52/mt over the same period.
The dip in the past weeks comes after five consecutive weeks of increasing prices.
On August 10, FOB NEA and SEA PET was assessed at $1,650/mt. The lower price in the typically weak year-end demand season has resulted in optimism on part of the buyers.
"People are taking a wait-and-see approach, and buying [limited volumes to meet immediate requirements]," said a producer in South Asia.
Currently, buyers are making inquiries for around 500 mt-1,000 mt cargoes, while earlier they would buy up to 30,000 mt at one go.
A South Korean producer said his customers were breaking down their demand into about four batches. "They believe prices will fall [in the near future], and don't want to take a risk," said the source.
Asian polyethylene terephthalate buyers have slashed purchase volumes despite cooling PET prices in the region after a recent surge, as they expect prices to fall further, producers told Platts this week.
PET prices started trending lower in the past two weeks on lower feedstock costs, with PET on an FOB Northeast Asia basis assessed at $1,670/mt Wednesday, down $45/mt week on week, while FOB SEA prices were assessed at $1,690/mt, down $50/mt over the same period.
Based on the latest feedstock prices, the breakeven price for PET is estimated at $1,613.24/mt, down $110.56/mt from last week. On Wednesday, CFR China monoethylene glycol was assessed at $1,212/mt, down $108/mt week on week, while CFR China purified terephthalic acid was assessed at $1,238/mt, down $52/mt over the same period.
The dip in the past weeks comes after five consecutive weeks of increasing prices.
On August 10, FOB NEA and SEA PET was assessed at $1,650/mt. The lower price in the typically weak year-end demand season has resulted in optimism on part of the buyers.
"People are taking a wait-and-see approach, and buying [limited volumes to meet immediate requirements]," said a producer in South Asia.
Currently, buyers are making inquiries for around 500 mt-1,000 mt cargoes, while earlier they would buy up to 30,000 mt at one go.
A South Korean producer said his customers were breaking down their demand into about four batches. "They believe prices will fall [in the near future], and don't want to take a risk," said the source.
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